I posted this comment a few days ago over at Nathan Bransford's Forums. Thought I'd share it here.
An e-book hypothetical. This leans on Nathan's post about the "tragedy of the commons." What if traditional publishers, in order to level the playing field and make their e-books more appealing to consumers, that is--more appealing than the $0.99-$2.99 self-published books, used a graduated price increase. Let's say all e-books start at $0.99, until the hundredth or thousandth e-book sells--depending on the estimated number of sales, the author, the popularity of the series, etc.--and then when sales hit the target (dare I say, "magic") number, the price increases to $1.99. After the next hundred of thousand books sell, the price increases from $1.99 to $2.99. Publishers could sustain this model until the price hits the current $9.99, and then cement the price there. Or... publishers don't stop at the current e-book ceiling. Instead, it takes the price all the way up to $12.99 or $16.99 (the most common price of a juvenile hardcover). I would imagine that sales would decline around the current e-book new release average, $9.99.
The big questions are - What does this do to consumerism? How does it affect readers? How does it affect authors, publishers, and the likes of Amazon, Apple, and B&N (the people actually making money)? Does it have any effect at all? Am I a bumbling fool?
Well, the goal would be to drive readers to books early and often. There is probably a name for this type of business model, but since I teach English and creative writing and know little to nothing about business models, I'll leave the naming to someone who knows what he's (or she's) talking about. Whatever the name, you'd think this approach would have to create some sort of immediacy in readers.
Take a look at consumerism the day after Thanksgiving. Black Friday. It's still the biggest, most successful, shopping day of the year almost every year. Why? Because of limited time only bargains. Half off. Seventy-five percent off. But only for a limited time. People have to take two trips home from Toys R Us because everything doesn't fit in their van. I've seen it happen!
This could be the publishing industry. Every day. Imagine it. There are certainly times when more books are released than others. Spring and fall are hot beds for forthcoming titles. But there are always new books hitting the "shelves." With a graduated price increase, there would be an urgency to buy new releases--as they're released--as opposed to waiting around until the price drops or one of your friends buys it. Or, if your local library still exists, waiting for your library to acquire the title, which can take months.
Furthermore, how would this graduated model affect sales? Short term? Long term? Would most books open to tremendous sales and then taper off?
I guess that would depend on the reviews, acclaim, and overall popularity. If a book sold moderately at opening, and then caught fire with consumers (readers), you could be looking at the largest number of sales at a higher price point. Would this create more profit for everyone? The answer to whether this model would be successful or not would take more numbers than I have access to and more time than I'd like to spend away from writing stories. It would also take Amanda Hocking's and Barry Eisler's brains to navigate a spreadsheet and come up with a definitive solution.
Publishing is at a major crossroads. So, whatever the answer, why not try it?
*Note: This model is called Penetration Pricing, but I've been thinking that the Wymer Model sounds much better.
I think if well-established authors have their ebooks at $2.99, they will sell like hotcakes. $2.99, keep it at $2.99. And if those well-established authors want to keep the $ themselves, they'll drop their houses and easily sell their own ebooks. This will work best for adult book authors, but selling to MG in this manner will become more achievable with each passing day.
ReplyDeleteI just don't know what will happen with new authors. We might all end up crying in our beers (if we're not already).
Anita: I disagree. People will buy well established authors' books at whatever the price. The current $9.99 is a fair price from a well-established author. Newbies, like yourself, should price their books as you have, anywhere from 0.99 - 2.99. Consumers (Readers) are more likely to take a chance on an author at this price than not. For instance, if you would've priced your book at 9.99, I would've still bought it because we're friends, but I wouldn't buy any other debut self-published book for that price.
ReplyDeleteAs for middle grade readers, there are several issues that will make physical books the only sensible option for years to come.
1. Devices are still expensive. Not many parents want to buy 3rd-6th graders e-readers, in fear of breaking or losing them. Even if prices come down, it's still not an affordable investment for middle-class families. If you have more than one kid, a middle class family is left with a decision: Buy multiple e-readers or make their kids share it.
2. E-books cannot be loaned to a friend easily, unless that friend also has a reading device.
3. From the publishers point of view, marketing e-books to middle grade readers is challenging. No book fair, no Scholastic Book Clubs, etc.
4. Libraries. With budget cuts at local and school libraries, they can't afford to stock e-readers for checkout. Maybe one or two, but that's it. Plus, they will be handled continuously and broken and will need to be replaced often. Libraries are starting to have e-books for checkout, but that water is still murky.
I don't see selling e-books to MG readers becoming more achievable. The only way to reach a wide MG audience about an e-book is through the internet. Their internet time is monitored and limited, due to homework, after school activities, etc. So really, you're left with Scholastic Book Clubs (if the teacher exposes students to this, which hopefully he/she does), Barnes & Noble, the local and school libraries, and teacher's bookshelf and recommendations.
I did see two girls reading on e-readers in the breezeway at school, but they're both eighth graders and reading YA or above. They're way past MG books. For this market, e-books can reach kids, otherwise I see physical books as the staple for MG readers for years to come.
TRACY: I certainly can't predict what will happen. I'm all, "I think blah, blah, blah." Time will tell.
ReplyDeleteLove this discussion. I think MG e-books will grow as parents upgrade on their readers and pass their older models to their kids. So it will be several years before it is mainstream.
ReplyDeleteI think increasing the price for mid-listers and debut authors has bite. It is an attractive marketing concept to me. People love a deal, and it will increase early sales. But will it stagnate or kill sales once the price gets too high?
Great topic.
bfav: I agree about the MG e-books growing, but the format of releasing a hardcover and e-book edition simultaneously will continue to be the norm. Publishers are in no place to only release e-books as new releases. There is simply no middle grade market for them right now because there is only a small net of kids with e-readers.
ReplyDeletebfav: Sales could stagnate, but if you set the plateau of $9.99 after X amount of sales, and that X is a high number, then you're making more volume of sales at various prices, which in turn creates more sales the publisher and author would not have otherwise.
ReplyDeleteTRACY: Agents will release ebooks for their clients...the good books that didn't make the publisher cut.
ReplyDeleteAnita: Check your email for my opinion on that. :)
ReplyDelete